David Ubilava

Here I present my work - the published articles and working papers - grouped thematically. For a conventional list of publications please refer to my CV. In some instances, particularly for the recent articles, I make the code and data available to facilitate replication of my findings. For other articles, I can make the code and data available upon request.


Commodity Prices

  • Ubilava, D. (2018). The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1), pp. 239-263. [Article] [Working Paper] [Data and Code]
  • Ubilava, D., (2017). The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics. World Development, 96, pp. 490-502. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D., (2014). El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Fishmeal - Soya Bean Meal Price Ratio: Regime-Dependent Dynamics Revisited. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41(4), pp. 583-604. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D. and M.T. Holt, (2013). El Niño Southern Oscillation and its Effects on World Vegetable Oil Prices: Assessing Asymmetries using Smooth Transition Models. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 57(2), pp. 273-297. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D., (2012). Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach. Agribusiness: an International Journal, 28(1), pp. 29-41. [Article] [Working Paper available upon request]
  • Ubilava, D., (2012). El Niño, La Niña, and World Coffee Price Dynamics. Agricultural Economics, 43(1), pp. 17-26. [Article] [Working Paper]

Agricultural Production

  • Tack, J.B. and D. Ubilava, (2015). Climate and Agricultural Risk: Measuring the Effect of ENSO on U.S. Crop Insurance. Agricultural Economics, 46(2), pp. 245-257. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Tack, J.B. and D. Ubilava, (2013). The Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk. Climatic Change, 121(4), pp. 689-700. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D., Barnett, B.J., Coble, K.H. and A. Harri, (2011). The SURE Program and its Interaction with other Federal Farm Programs. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 36(3), pp. 630-648. [Article] [Working Paper available upon request]

Economic Growth

  • Ubilava, D., Tack, J.B. and N.B. Villoria, (2017). Smooth Transitions across Latitudes and Longitudes: An Application of a Nonlinear Panel Regression to the Climate-Economics Nexus. (in preparation).
  • Smith, S.C. and D. Ubilava, (2017). The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World. Global Environmental Change, 45, pp. 151-164. [Article] [Working Paper] [Data and Code]

Nonlinear Modeling and Forecasting

  • Ubilava, D., (in press). On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling. Macroeconomic Dynamics. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D. and C.G. Helmers, (2013). Forecasting ENSO with a Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 40, pp. 181-190. [Article] [Working Paper]

Consumer Demand

  • Ubilava, D., Foster, K.A., Lusk, J.L. and T. Nilsson, (2011). Differences in Consumer Preferences When Facing Branded vs. Non-Branded Choices. Journal of Consumer Behaviour, 10(2), pp. 61-70. [Article] [Working Paper]
  • Ubilava, D., Foster, K.A., Lusk, J.L. and T. Nilsson, (2010). Effects of Income and Social Awareness on Consumer WTP for Social Product Attributes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(4), pp. 587-593. [Article] [Working Paper available upon request]
  • Ubilava, D. and K.A. Foster, (2009). Quality Certification vs. Product Traceability: Consumer Preferences for Informational Attributes of Pork in Georgia. Food Policy, 34(3), pp. 305-310. [Article] [Working Paper]

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